Tag Archives: Pollsters

How the pollsters did in 2020 — Kiwiblog

PartyResultONCBNRRRMPollDiffMOEPollDiffMOEPollDiffMOELabour50.0%46.0%-4.0%No45.8%-4.2%No47.5%-2.5%YesNational25.6%31.0%5.4%No31.1%5.5%No28.5%2.9%NoGreens7.9%8.0%0.1%Yes6.3%-1.6%No9.5%1.6%YesACT7.6%8.0%0.4%Yes7.4%-0.2%Yes7.0%-0.6%YesMaori1.2%0.6%-0.6%No0.6%-0.6%No0.5%-0.7%NoNZ First2.6%2.6%0.0%Yes3.5%0.9%Yes2.5%-0.1%YesTOP1.5%1.1%-0.4%Yes1.3%-0.2%Yes1.5%0.0%YesNew Cons1.5%1.5%0.0%Yes1.7%0.2%YesAdvance1.0%0.9%-0.1%Yes0.3%-0.7%NoTotal Gap11.0%14.1%8.4%There were three pre-election public polls, from One News Colmar Brunton, Newshub Reid Research and Roy Morgan. With final results, we can now compare how they did. The table above shows the results, the poll, and the difference. The MOE column indicates whether the difference is within the 95% margin of error.…

via How the pollsters did in 2020 — Kiwiblog

How the pollsters did in 2017 — Kiwiblog

Now we have a final result we can look at how the public pollsters did. UMR are not included as their full results have not been published but Jacinda Ardern said the day before the election that “Labour is within one point of National in its internal polling”. I am only looking at how the…

via How the pollsters did in 2017 — Kiwiblog

How the pollsters did provisionally — Kiwiblog

Grumpolie has prepared this chart. Basically it shows the two TV polls were very accurate. The polls of polls and associated forecasts were less accurate. The Curia poll of polls (seperate to any internal polling I do) included the earlier Colmar Brunton polls showing Labour leading so I expected it to be out. The Listener…

via How the pollsters did provisionally — Kiwiblog