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The Great Kiwi Poll- results now out! 16th Mar 2017

The poll, carried out between 8th and 15th March, asked a sample of nearly 1200 people how they would vote if an election were held today, then asked them a surprise follow-up question: “If Jacinda Ardern was Labour leader instead of Andrew Little, which party would you vote for if an election were held today?”

Astoundingly, in that scenario, Labour moved into top spot in the poll, more than three percentage points clear of National – a clear signal that this year’s election could become a close-fought race.

Conservative Party leader Leighton Baker says although the poll was carried out online among a pool of social media users, the results are statistically valid as they measure a voting shift within the survey sample itself if the opportunity came to vote for an Ardern-led Labour Party.

“Online polls are normally treated more skeptically because their samples are less random than standard phone polls, but findings of attitudinal shifts within such polls are valid because they measure changes within the same survey sample.

“In this case we were stunned to find that a promotion of Jacinda Ardern to the leadership of Labour saw the party move from four percentage points behind National to three percentage points in front. An Ardern-led Labour took votes away from National and NZ First, although the Greens were hardest hit by the prospect of Jacinda Ardern.”

Baker says the trend of a swing to Jacinda emerged on day one after the first 200 votes were in, and remained at almost the same ratio right through the next six days of the poll. He noted it is the first poll to actually pose the question about Ardern’s impact as a potential leader, but he was also surprised to see how active on social media NZ First supporters are.

“Being an online poll we took certain precautions to prevent repeat voting, such as allowing only one vote per IP address for the duration of the poll, and using a separate URL – www.thegreatkiwipoll.com– to keep the poll unbranded, but right from the start there was a clear lead for National and also a surprisingly strong challenge by NZ First to the Andrew Little-led Labour team.

“Question one actually found NZ First in second place, ahead of Labour in third, if an election were held today. Now I don’t believe for a minute that Andrew Little’s support is as low as 20% or that Winston’s support is running as high in the general population as the 21% share his party records in this poll, but it may well be higher than the 11% support ordinary phone polls are recording, and that may illustrate a weakness of phone polls which have traditionally surveyed landline users, whereas Gen X and Millennials are more likely to be on smartphones and social media. It may also indicate that Winston’s followers are more motivated than Labour and National supporters, which should be a warning to the major parties.

“Our poll found a level of support for the Conservative Party at more than 4%, and that’s a pretty accurate reflection of the core conservative support over the past couple of decades in various forms. They are not finding it in the landline polls, but we know our support is higher than the landline polls indicate.”

Leighton Baker says there are other questions in the Conservative Party poll that transcend tribal political allegiances and whose sheer margins make them statistically valid as well.

“We wanted to take the pulse of kiwis on some pretty big issues. We found 70% support for Binding Citizens’ Initiated Referenda, which shows there is massive cross-party support from New Zealand voters for making politicians accountable.

“BCIR is a core policy of the Conservative Party. If we form part of the next coalition, we will make sure governments respect the wishes of the people from now on,” says Baker. “You have my word on it.

“Another big finding is that 79% of those sampled reject the philosophy of globalism and supreme international law. This shows New Zealanders have the same concerns that gave rise to Brexit in the UK and Trump in the USA. Political parties and the media ignore this at their peril. This poll result shows a massive majority of kiwis from across the political spectrum share the same concerns as Conservatives do, and those concerns can no longer be swept aside and dismissed. New Zealanders want control of their country to ultimately remain in voters’ hands, not be delegated away to the UN and international treaties.”

Baker says the party will carry out more polling on other major issues in the next few weeks.

With a sample size of almost 1,200, the margin of error is 3%.

The full results of the new poll are being published on the Conservative Party Facebook page and its website, and follow below.


Results for ‘1. If an election were held today, which party would you most likely vote for?’

General

Voting Type

Poll ID

Poll Created

Last Updated

Status

Anonymous voting only

2419708

12 Feb 2017

15 Mar 2017

Results

Filter by:

Time Frame Results

From: To:  Or:

Answer

Votes

Act

4.2% / 49

Conservative NZ

4.7% / 55

Greens

15.4% / 181

Labour

19.7% / 232

Maori

0.3% / 4

National

23.7% / 279

NZ First

21.0% / 247

United Future

0.4% / 5

Not sure

6.6% / 78

Other

4.1% / 48

Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 1,178


Results for ‘2. Which main party leadership team would be most competent to run the country?’

General

Voting Type

Poll ID

Poll Created

Last Updated

Status

Anonymous voting only

2424023

02 Mar 2017

15 Mar 2017

Results

Filter by:

Time Frame Results

From: To: Or:

Answer

Votes

National’s Bill English & Paula Bennett

40.2% / 453

Labour’s Andrew Little & Jacinda Ardern

40.3% / 455

Not sure

19.5% / 220

Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 1,128

  


Results for ‘3. Which main party leadership team would you personally prefer to run the country?’

General

Voting Type

Poll ID

Poll Created

Last Updated

Status

Anonymous voting only

2424024

02 Mar 2017

15 Mar 2017

Results

Filter by:

Time Frame Results

From: To:  Or:

Answer

Votes

National’s Bill English & Paula Bennett

39.0% / 399

Labour’s Andrew Little & Jacinda Ardern

43.5% / 445

Not sure

17.6% / 180

Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 1,024

 


 

Results for ‘4. Which of the following best describes New Zealand’s elected politicians?’

General

Voting Type

Poll ID

Poll Created

Last Updated

Status

Anonymous voting only

2424028

02 Mar 2017

15 Mar 2017

Results

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Time Frame Results

From: To:  Or:

Answer

Votes

They respect the wishes of the people

9.9% / 95

They don’t respect the wishes of the people

33.8% / 326

They act as if they are Elite

33.2% / 320

I’m happy with our political establishment

23.1% / 223

Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 964

 


 Results for ‘5. Do you think the Brexit was:’

General

Voting Type

Poll ID

Poll Created

Last Updated

Status

Anonymous voting only

2424030

02 Mar 2017

15 Mar 2017

Results

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Time Frame Results

From: To:  Or:

Answer

Votes

A classic case of people power bringing politicians to heel

48.9% / 474

A big mistake

36.9% / 358

Not sure

14.2% / 138

Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 970

  


Results for ‘6. Would you like to see New Zealand politicians compelled to respect the public’s wishes on controversial policies if expressed in a binding referendum?’

General

Voting Type

Poll ID

Poll Created

Last Updated

Status

Anonymous voting only

2424169

03 Mar 2017

15 Mar 2017

Results

Filter by:

Time Frame Results

From: To:  Or:

Answer

Votes

Yes

70.4% / 675

No

20.4% / 196

Not sure

9.2% / 88

Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 959

  


Results for ‘7. Do you support the globalist ideal of countries increasingly giving up national sovereignty under international law, or do you think the public should continue to have the final say in how their countries are run?’

 

General

Voting Type

Poll ID

Poll Created

Last Updated

Status

Anonymous voting only

2424173

03 Mar 2017

15 Mar 2017

Results

Filter by:

Time Frame Results

From: To:  Or:

Answer

Votes

I believe in the ideals of global governance and supreme international law

14.3% / 136

I believe countries and communities should be self-governing and the people should always have the final power to veto international treaties a government signs

79.2% / 752

Not sure

6.4% / 61

Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 949

  


 

Results for ‘8. Do you believe foreigners should be allowed to buy New Zealand houses if their own countries don’t allow New Zealanders to buy homes over there?’

General

Voting Type

Poll ID

Poll Created

Last Updated

Status

Anonymous voting only

2424174

03 Mar 2017

15 Mar 2017

Results

Filter by:

Time Frame Results

From: To:  Or:

Answer

Votes

Yes, our moral commitment to free investment and free trade requires us to allow foreigners to buy up our properties

15.2% / 142

No, foreign investors can too easily dominate New Zealand’s small market and finite land supply, and there must be controls, especially when we don’t have the same property rights

78.1% / 729

Not sure

6.6% / 62

Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 933

 


Results for ‘9. Do you think prostitution would be better controlled by cracking down on clients like they do in other countries and making it illegal for men to buy sex services from vulnerable women?’

General

Voting Type

Poll ID

Poll Created

Last Updated

Status

Anonymous voting only

2424175

03 Mar 2017

15 Mar 2017

Results

Filter by:

Time Frame Results

From: To:  Or:

Answer

Votes

Yes, young girls are being lured in by ‘easy money’ but prostitution has long term psychological and health impacts and clients should bear responsibility

23.7% / 219

No, as long as the participants are consenting adults the police should not get involved

53.1% / 490

Yes, but only where it can be proven a woman is vulnerable or there has been any attempted solicitation in a public place

16.5% / 152

Not sure

6.7% / 62

Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 923

 


 

Results for ’10. If Jacinda Ardern was Labour leader instead of Andrew Little, which party would you vote for if an election were held today?’

General

Voting Type

Poll ID

Poll Created

Last Updated

Status

Anonymous voting only

2424183

03 Mar 2017

15 Mar 2017

Results

Filter by:

Time Frame Results

From: To:  Or:

Answer

Votes

Act

4.1% / 38

Conservative NZ

4.8% / 44

Greens

13.1% / 120

Labour

25.4% / 233

Maori

0.2% / 2

National

22.1% / 203

NZ First

19.8% / 182

United Future

0.4% / 4

Not sure

6.4% / 59

Other

3.6% / 33

Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 918

 


Results for ’11. Do you approve or disapprove of the government raising the superannuation age to 67 for people born after 1972?’

General

Voting Type

Poll ID

Poll Created

Last Updated

Status

Anonymous voting only

2424891

07 Mar 2017

15 Mar 2017

Results

Filter by:

Time Frame Results

From: To:  Or:

Answer

Votes

Yes

47.1% / 426

No

36.4% / 329

Not sure

16.6% / 150

Total votes 08 Mar – 15 Mar: 905

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